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NAHB Model Predicts Housing Demand From New Immigrants

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NAHB Model Predicts Housing Demand From New Immigrants

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NAHB analysis of recent immigration data from the American Community Survey (ACS) reveals numerous emerging trends in housing demand. For example, assuming annual net immigration of 1.2 million over the next 10 years, new immigrants can conservatively be expected to occupy more than 2 million multifamily units and 1.2 million single-family homes over that time, with more than 900,000 of these new immigrants becoming home owners.

The NAHB study "Immigrants and Housing Demand" is available free of charge from our HousingEconomics.com website and includes estimates of the rates at which immigrants form households, move into multi- or single-family housing units, and choose to buy or rent their residences. To arrive at these projections, NAHB developed a model that takes into account the age of newly arriving immigrants, region of origin and length of stay in the United States. The model then assigns probabilities of becoming a head of household, purchasing a home and moving into single-family or multifamily property based on immigrants' characteristics. Among other important factors for housing demand, the latest data reveal that new immigrants are a young and diverse group, with more than two-thirds aged under 35 years.

Nearly 42% of newly arrived immigrants hail from Asia, while another 40% come from the Americas, 10% are from European countries and the remaining 8% are from elsewhere. Moreover, while the share of Asian immigrants has been rising over the past several years, the share of Mexican immigrants has been on the decline while the share of immigrants from the rest of the Americas has only partially offset this shortfall. NAHB's model predicts that, upon their arrival to the U.S., more than three quarters of new immigrants will choose multifamily units and other housing arrangements, while only 24% will immediately move into single-family attached or detached units.

However, by the time these families have been in the U.S. for 10 years or more, close to 50% of them will have moved into single-family homes. And for European- and Asian-born households, the shares of expected single-family dwellers after 10 years is even greater. Read more about what NAHB's model projects in terms of immigrant-based U.S. housing demand over the next decade by downloading a free copy of our latest study from HousingEconomics.com.

 

Improving Markets List Spotlights 80 Metros in August

The NAHB/First American Improving Markets Index for August includes 75 housing markets that held on from the previous month plus five additions: Miami and Palm Bay, Fla.; Hinesville, Ga.; Terre Haute, Ind.; and Lubbock, Texas. A total of 80 metropolitan statistical areas across 32 states and the District of Columbia were listed as improving housing markets on the NAHB/First American Improving Markets Index (IMI) for August, released this past Monday. The latest list includes 75 markets that retained their "improving" designations along with five new ones, while nine areas fell from the list due primarily to slight movements in house prices.

The index identifies metropolitan areas that have shown improvement from their respective troughs in housing permits, employment and house prices for at least six consecutive months. The five metros that were added to the list this month include Miami and Palm Bay, Fla.; Hinesville, Ga.; Terre Haute, Ind.; and Lubbock, Texas. Commenting on the data, NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe observed that while the August list is down slightly from the 84 markets designated as improving in July, "The fact that we continue to see a strong core of metros showing up on the improving list each month adds to the growing evidence that the emerging housing recovery has a solid foundation on which to build as housing returns to its traditional role of driving economic growth."

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  • Joanne Loftus
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